The Countdown and Uncertainty in Niger

The countdown has ended, and uncertainty now reigns in Niger. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had set an ultimatum for the junta to restore constitutional order and return power to the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. This ultimatum expired on the night of Sunday, August 6. If the junta failed to comply, they would face military intervention.

The Junta's Hold on Power and Closed Airspace

The coup leaders, however, are holding onto power and have taken the step of closing the country's airspace. In a communiqué from the National Council for the Salvation of the People (CNSP), which seized power, it was stated that the Nigerien airspace is closed until further notice due to the imminent threat of intervention from neighboring countries. As tensions continue to rise, the future of Niger now depends on the political decisions of its neighbors.

ECOWAS' Decision and Potential Attack

So far, ECOWAS has not decided to launch an armed attack. No troop deployment had been officially initiated as of Monday morning. According to a source close to ECOWAS, immediate military intervention to restore President Mohamed Bazoum is not being considered at this stage. A summit of the leaders of member countries will be held in the "coming days" to make a decision. However, both sides are prepared to mobilize their forces, and if an attack is launched, things could escalate rapidly. ECOWAS has completed a plan of intervention, pooling resources from Nigeria, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal.

Support and Criticism from Neighboring Countries

France has pledged its support to ECOWAS in its operations. French Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna stated that the threat of intervention must be taken seriously. However, the withdrawal of French soldiers is not currently being considered. The Nigerien military has also received support from Mali and Burkina Faso, who came to power through coups in 2020 and 2022, respectively. These countries have stated that an intervention in Niger would be a "declaration of war" against them.

The Diplomatic Option and Voices of Caution

The scenario of an armed attack is being criticized by Chad and Algeria, two influential African states that are not members of ECOWAS. Chad's Minister of Defense stated that Chad will never intervene militarily and has always supported dialogue. Algeria has called for caution and restraint, believing that a military intervention could worsen the current crisis. Voices in Nigeria have also called for preventing hostilities and strengthening the political and diplomatic option. The possibility of granting Niger an additional deadline is being discussed.

Words of the day

ultimatum : ultimatum

communiqué : communiqué