Isolation and Economic Challenges

The military junta that has seized power in Niger is currently facing isolation and is unlikely to maintain control for much longer. Dominique Trinquand, a general and former head of the French mission to the UN, has highlighted the possibility of a military intervention by ECOWAS, whose ultimatum to the coup leaders recently expired. Trinquand also emphasized the economic challenges faced by the junta, including the cutoff of electricity supply by Nigeria, which provides 70% of Niger's electricity, and the suspension of aid to one of the world's poorest countries.

Support and Warnings from Neighboring Countries

The coup leaders in Niger have received support from their counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso, both of which experienced coups in 2020 and 2022, respectively. These countries have warned that any intervention in Niger would be considered a declaration of war against them. However, influential African states that are not members of ECOWAS, such as Chad and Algeria, have criticized the possibility of a military attack. Chad's Defense Minister stated that Chad would never intervene militarily and has always supported dialogue. Algeria's Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for caution and restraint, suggesting that military intervention could worsen the crisis.

Political and Diplomatic Efforts

While the option of a military attack remains uncertain, political and diplomatic solutions are being explored. Some voices in Nigeria, including senators, have called for a strengthening of political and diplomatic efforts. They urge President Bola Tinubu, who also heads ECOWAS, to intensify negotiations with the coup leaders and send another delegation to Niamey. Italy has expressed hope that the ECOWAS ultimatum will be extended, emphasizing the need for a diplomatic resolution. The possibility of granting Niger additional time is also being discussed. Researchers and experts on the Sahel have emphasized the importance of preventing a catastrophic war and finding a solution that does not play into the hands of jihadist movements.

Uncertainty and Neighboring Countries' Decisions

The situation in Niger remains uncertain as ECOWAS leaders have not yet decided on a military intervention. While plans for intervention have been prepared, no official deployment has been announced. The future of Niger now depends on the political decisions of its neighboring countries. The junta in power is holding on tightly and has closed the country's airspace, indicating their resistance to external pressure. As tensions continue to rise, the fate of Niger hangs in the balance, with military and diplomatic scenarios still on the table.

Words of the day

isolation : isolement

economic challenges : défis économiques