Uncertainty Looms as ECOWAS Ultimatum Expires

The military junta that seized power in Niger is facing a precarious situation and may not be able to hold on for much longer, according to Dominique Trinquand, a former French military chief. Trinquand expressed his views on the situation in an interview on France Inter on Monday, August 7th.

Trinquand highlighted the possibility of a military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), whose ultimatum to the coup leaders expired the previous night. He stated that the chiefs of staff of ECOWAS member states had met for two days to prepare plans for engagement.

The only support for the coup leaders comes from Mali and Burkina Faso, which have previously experienced their own coups. The junta is completely isolated and facing economic challenges, as Nigeria, which supplies 70% of Niger's electricity, has cut off power. Additionally, all aid has been suspended, and Niger, being one of the poorest countries in the world, relies heavily on external assistance.

Trinquand emphasized the internal divisions within the military junta, particularly regarding the personal motives behind General Tiani's coup. He acknowledged that the situation puts France in a delicate position, but ultimately, it is a matter that needs to be resolved by Nigeriens and Africans themselves.

Uncertainty Surrounds Potential Military Intervention

The uncertainty surrounding a potential military intervention by the West African bloc in Niger remains on Sunday, August 6th.

Last Sunday, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued a seven-day ultimatum to the military officials who overthrew elected President Mohamed Bazoum to restore constitutional order and return power to him, or face the use of force. The deadline expired on Sunday evening, and so far, the generals who took power on July 26th in Niamey have shown no willingness to step down.

In the event of a military intervention by ECOWAS, Mali and Burkina Faso, both led by coup leaders, have announced that they would go to war alongside Niger. Here are the forces involved:

The coup leaders in Niger have approximately 57,000 soldiers. President Bazoum had plans to increase the national army to 50,000 soldiers, but currently, it stands at 30,000. Mali has an army of 21,000 soldiers with outdated artillery, while Burkina Faso's army consists of about 6,000 soldiers on land and only a few dozen light or transport aircraft.

ECOWAS has a combined force of 245,000 soldiers, with Nigeria having the most powerful army in the region, comprising about 200,000 soldiers, along with tanks and armored vehicles. Senegal plans to mobilize 15,000 soldiers, and Côte d'Ivoire has around 30,000 soldiers equipped with armored vehicles. The French Minister of Defense has praised Côte d'Ivoire's efforts to strengthen its security apparatus.

Uncertainty Persists as ECOWAS Ultimatum Expires

The countdown has ended, and uncertainty prevails in Niger as the ultimatum set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the coup leaders has expired.

The organization had given the junta seven days to restore constitutional order and return power to President Mohamed Bazoum, or face military intervention. However, the coup leaders are holding onto power and have closed the country's airspace.

For now, ECOWAS has not launched a military attack. No troop deployment has been officially initiated as of Monday morning. A source close to ECOWAS stated that an immediate military intervention to reinstate President Bazoum is not currently being considered. A summit of the member states' leaders will be held in the coming days to decide on further action.

Both sides are prepared to mobilize their forces, and if an attack occurs, it could escalate rapidly. ECOWAS has finalized an intervention plan, involving the forces of Nigeria, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal. The details of potential attack zones and the scale of mobilized forces remain classified. However, experts estimate that around 50,000 soldiers could be involved.

France has expressed its support for ECOWAS operations but stated that the withdrawal of French soldiers is not currently being considered. Meanwhile, the coup leaders in Niger have received support from their counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso, who have warned that an intervention in Niger would be considered a declaration of war against their countries.

While a military intervention is on the table, influential African states such as Chad and Algeria, which are not ECOWAS members, have emphasized the importance of political and diplomatic solutions. They have called for dialogue and caution, as an armed intervention could worsen the crisis. Algeria's President has warned that the entire Sahel region could ignite if an intervention occurs.

In addition, there are voices within Nigeria advocating for a political and diplomatic approach to resolve the situation. The Nigerian Senate has urged President Bola Tinubu, who is also the head of ECOWAS, to intensify negotiations with the coup leaders by sending another delegation to Niamey.

As the situation unfolds, the diplomatic option of granting an extended deadline to Niger is also being discussed. Italy has expressed hope that the ECOWAS ultimatum will be prolonged and emphasized the need for a diplomatic solution. Researchers and experts on the Sahel region have also stressed the importance of preventing a catastrophic war and finding a solution that does not play into the hands of jihadist groups.

Words of the day

ultimatum : ultimatum

coup : coup