Risque de récession au Royaume-Uni lors des prochaines élections générales : 60%, selon un think tank

Risk of UK recession at next general election is 60%, says thinktank

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has warned that there is a 60% risk of the UK entering a recession at the end of 2024. The thinktank's quarterly update on the state of the economy reveals that the poorest households have been particularly affected by the cost of living crisis, and would need an annual income boost of £4,000 to maintain their living standards. The NIESR predicts that it will take until the third quarter of 2024 for the UK's output to return to its pre-pandemic peak. The report highlights the impact of the triple supply shocks of Brexit, Covid-19, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the monetary tightening that has been necessary to bring down inflation. The thinktank also warns of signs of a return to the "British disease" of the 1970s, with high inflation and weak growth. The NIESR's forecast shows that wage growth has been fastest in London, leading to widening disparities of income and wealth across the country.

UK 'at risk of recession next year', thinktank warns

A report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has warned that there is a 60% risk of the UK entering a recession at the end of 2024. The thinktank's forecast indicates that the economy will avoid a recession this year, but will only grow by 0.4%. The NIESR predicts that it will take until the third quarter of 2024 for the UK's output to return to its pre-pandemic peak. The report highlights the impact of the triple supply shocks of Brexit, Covid-19, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the monetary tightening that has been necessary to bring down inflation. The NIESR also warns of widening disparities of income and wealth across the country, with the poorest households being hit hardest by the cost of living crisis.

Early election dilemma for Rishi Sunak as economists warn of recession

Economists have warned that the UK is likely to be plunged into a recession at the end of next year, posing a dilemma for Chancellor Rishi Sunak over whether to call an early election. A report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reveals that there is a 60% risk of a recession at the end of 2024. The NIESR predicts that it will take until the third quarter of 2024 for the UK's output to return to its pre-pandemic peak. The report highlights the impact of the triple supply shocks of Brexit, Covid-19, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the monetary tightening that has been necessary to bring down inflation. The NIESR also warns of widening disparities of income and wealth across the country, with the poorest households being hit hardest by the cost of living crisis.

Today's concept is "The daily lightning"

In economics, the concept of "The daily lightning" refers to the rapid and unpredictable changes in the economy that can have a significant impact on various factors such as GDP growth, inflation, and employment. Just like lightning, these changes can be sudden and unexpected, making it difficult for policymakers and economists to accurately predict and respond to them. Factors such as geopolitical events, natural disasters, and changes in consumer behavior can all contribute to the occurrence of daily lightning in the economy. This concept highlights the need for flexibility and adaptability in economic policies to mitigate the negative effects of these rapid changes and ensure stability and growth.